Spectral analysis of climate cycles to predict rainfall induced landslides in the western Mediterranean (Majorca, Spain)

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dc.contributor.author Luque Espinar, Juan Antonio
dc.contributor.author Mateos Ruiz, Rosa María
dc.contributor.author García Moreno, Inmaculada
dc.contributor.author Pardo Iguzquiza, Eulogio
dc.contributor.author Herrera García, Gerardo
dc.date.accessioned 2020-12-23T05:31:52Z
dc.date.available 2020-12-23T05:31:52Z
dc.date.issued 2017-08-08
dc.identifier.citation Natural Hazards, vol.89, 985–1007 es_ES
dc.identifier.issn 1573-0840
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12468/755
dc.description Acceso electrónico sólo desde el IGME es_ES
dc.description.abstract ignal detection as local and exceptional influences are eliminated. Simulations have been performed for each rainfall/gauging station, using the most significant climate cycles obtained by means of the power spectrum. A good correlation between rainfall/flow values and simulated cycles has been obtained. The NAO and ENSO cycles are the most influential in the rainy periods, and specifically the NAO cycle, where a good correlation between episodes of high rainfall/flow and high values of ANAOI can be observed. At a second stage, landslides dated and recorded in the Tramuntana Range since 1954 (174 events) have been correlated with the simulated cycles obtaining good results, as the landslide events match rainfall peaks well. The correlation for the past decade (since 2005), when a detailed landslide inventory is available, also reveals a coincidence between landslide events and climate cycles, and specifically NAO and ENSO cycles. That is the case of the period 2008–2010, when numerous mass movements took place, and when the largest movement of the inventory was recorded. Results show a potential rainy period in the Tramuntana Range for the coming years (with maximum values around year 2021), when conditions similar to those related to the 2008–2010 event could take place again. The methodology presented in this work can contribute to the prediction of temporal, extreme hydrological events in order to design short-/medium-term mitigation strategies on a regional scale. es_ES
dc.description.sponsorship Unidad de Granada, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, España es_ES
dc.description.sponsorship Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, España es_ES
dc.language.iso en es_ES
dc.publisher Springer es_ES
dc.relation FP7/2007-2013 es_ES
dc.relation CGL2015-71510-R es_ES
dc.rights Acceso abierto es_ES
dc.subject climate cycles es_ES
dc.subject landslides es_ES
dc.subject mediterranean region es_ES
dc.subject prediction es_ES
dc.subject spectral analysis es_ES
dc.title Spectral analysis of climate cycles to predict rainfall induced landslides in the western Mediterranean (Majorca, Spain) es_ES
dc.type Postprint es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-017-3003-3 es_ES
dc.description.funder Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, España es_ES
dc.description.funder Séptimo Programa Marco, Comunidad Europea es_ES
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3003-3 es_ES
dc.coverage.spatialStudy Mallorca, España es_ES

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